US National Debt vs Sahm Rule Indicator

US National Debt

Total US federal government debt

40.53T USD
+4.00%
Very High
40.6 40.0 39.3 Jul'26 Aug'26 Sep'26 Oct'26

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

0.00%
-100.00%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.11 -0.07 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26 Aug'26

Indicator Comparison

US National Debt Sahm Rule Indicator
Current 40.53T USD 0.00%
Change +4.00% -100.00%
Status Very High No Recession Signal
Data Source FRED GFDEBTN FRED SAHMREALTIME
Update Frequency Quarterly Monthly
Last Updated October 30, 2026 September 1, 2026