Sahm Rule Indicator vs Inflation Rate (CPI)

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

-0.07%
-153.85%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.11 -0.07 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26

Inflation Rate (CPI)

Consumer Price Index YoY change

3.5%
-10.38%
Above Target
334 330 327 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26

Indicator Comparison

Sahm Rule Indicator Inflation Rate (CPI)
Current -0.07% 3.5%
Change -153.85% -10.38%
Status No Recession Signal Above Target
Data Source FRED SAHMREALTIME FRED CPIAUCSL
Update Frequency Monthly Monthly
Last Updated August 1, 2026 July 1, 2026