Sahm Rule Indicator vs Consumer Confidence

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

-0.07%
-153.85%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.11 -0.07 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26

Consumer Confidence

University of Michigan consumer sentiment

55.2
+3.56%
Very Pessimistic
56.6 50.7 44.8 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26

Indicator Comparison

Sahm Rule Indicator Consumer Confidence
Current -0.07% 55.2
Change -153.85% +3.56%
Status No Recession Signal Very Pessimistic
Data Source FRED SAHMREALTIME FRED UMCSENT
Update Frequency Monthly Monthly
Last Updated August 1, 2026 July 1, 2026