National Debt to GDP vs Sahm Rule Indicator

National Debt to GDP

US federal debt as % of GDP

122.6%
+0.02%
Elevated

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

-0.07%
-153.85%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.11 -0.07 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26

Indicator Comparison

National Debt to GDP Sahm Rule Indicator
Current 122.6% -0.07%
Change +0.02% -153.85%
Status Elevated No Recession Signal
Data Source FRED GFDEGDQ188S FRED SAHMREALTIME
Update Frequency Quarterly Monthly
Last Updated January 1, 2026 August 1, 2026