National Debt to GDP vs Sahm Rule Indicator

National Debt to GDP

US federal debt as % of GDP

121.2%
-1.13%
Elevated
122 122 121

Sahm Rule Indicator

Real-time recession indicator

0.00%
-100.00%
No Recession Signal
0.30 0.11 -0.07 Feb'26 Mar'26 Apr'26 May'26 Jun'26 Jul'26 Aug'26

Indicator Comparison

National Debt to GDP Sahm Rule Indicator
Current 121.2% 0.00%
Change -1.13% -100.00%
Status Elevated No Recession Signal
Data Source FRED GFDEGDQ188S FRED SAHMREALTIME
Update Frequency Quarterly Monthly
Last Updated April 1, 2026 September 1, 2026